MADRID — To listen to Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on Monday was to hear of a Spain that has blossomed and prospered during his four years in power.
But there’s still some nagging and uncomfortable details to the Spanish recovery narrative that Rajoy conveniently omitted and which could play a crucial role in his political future.
In a press conference after signing a decree to formally dissolve the Parliament and hold general elections on December 20, Rajoy put the emphasis on the positive. He said the economically-challenged nation had gone from being threatened with a bailout to earning total confidence among international investors and from record unemployment to record job creation.
He also dismissed speculation that he may step down after the elections if a potential coalition partner demands “his head.”
“My head is well placed and I’m not letting anyone change that place,” he quipped to journalists.
An average of polls from El Electoral shows Rajoy’s Popular Party as the current leader in the race with 27.4 percent, followed closely by the Socialist Party (25.9 percent). The emerging parties Ciudadanos (15.5 percent) and Podemos (14.2 percent) are closely packed in third and fourth places.
But the apparent closeness of the race points to a fragmented and unprecedented scenario where one of the main, traditional parties will need the support of at least one of the newcomers. PP earned 45 percent of the votes in the previous general election, the party’s best result ever.
Rajoy is clearly banking on his government’s handling of the economic crisis. He offered a cascade of economic data Monday to support his optimism, hoping that the recovery will get him re-elected.
But there are those other details that he’ll also have to deal with:
Unemployment
When Rajoy took office in late 2011, Spain was losing 1,430 jobs per day and now it’s creating 1,492 daily, he argued Monday. He also said the country will generate more employment in 2015 than in any other year of its history, a fact that will allow him to end up his term with a decrease of 436,000 on the unemployment rolls.
It’s true that the government has reversed the employment trend. Spain was a job-destroying-machine during the crisis and that has stopped. The unemployment rate dropped in the third quarter of 2015 to 21.2 percent, below the 23.4 percent rate prevailing when Rajoy started.
But Rajoy’s numbers in absolute terms are hard to be proud of. There are less people working in Spain today (18.05 million) than there were in late 2011 (18.15 million). The unemployment rate has dropped mostly because the active population (those working or looking for a job) has diminished.
There are many causes. The Spanish population is aging and there are fewer people of working age. And hundreds of thousands of migrants and local youngsters have either gone back to their countries or looked for better opportunities abroad, especially elsewhere in the European Union.
So, on unemployment during Rajoy’s term, yes, it’s better. But the job situation is far from good.
Pensioners and social cutbacks
“We have overcome the worst of crisis without letting anyone down,” Rajoy said, arguing that some 9.5 million pensioners have been punctually receiving their benefits, as have the unemployed.
Rajoy has respected pensioners’ rights more than those of any other group in Spanish society. Pensions haven’t been cut or frozen even when public servant’s wages were severely hit by austerity measures.
That’s not by accident. The prime minister is heavily invested in pensioners, an enormous group of faithful voters who largely support the PP and who are less likely than any other voting bloc to be tempted by the new parties.
But his focus on sparing pensioners may bring a backlash from the rest of Spanish society. Cutbacks in public services like education and healthcare and rising taxes have affected virtually every other group.
Rajoy also has been criticized for not doing more to cut his administration’s expenses, as French President François Hollande did by reducing the number of France’s regions from 22 to 14. Political costs have taken less of a hit than social safety net costs, critics argue.
The war against corruption and tax evasion
Rajoy boasted of having approved the most aggressive battery of policy measures targeting fraud and corruption in Spain’s democratic history, resulting in the recovery of €41 billion.
But many experts on the issues dispute those claims. Just last week, the biggest prosecutor’s association in the country (Asociación de Fiscales) complained that the measures launched by Rajoy’s government have created severe difficulties in “investigating corruption-related crimes.”
Rajoy’s government approved a tax amnesty in 2012. And many PP cadres are being investigated and prosecuted for corruption, including former finance minister and IMF chief Rodrigo Rato. Concerns about corruption and tax abuse have been steadily growing for much of Rajoy’s mandate, according to polls conducted by CIS, the Center for Sociological Research.
Dodging the bailout
Rajoy’s great achievement, at least in his view, is having avoided an economic bailout. “We can pay pensions — other countries are being ordered to cut them,” he said Monday.
That’s only half-true. The Spanish financial system had to be rescued, increasing public debt by more than €40 billion. Spain also to fulfill creditors’ conditions in exchange for the money, although these were not as severe as those applied to Greece and other nations.
